Menu | Explaining level changesLucas Van Zijl v Richard Church (Sat 07 Jun 2025)Match won by Lucas Van Zijl. Result: 15-5,15-7,15-9.Starting level for Lucas Van Zijl: 1,842, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for Richard Church: 1,787, level confidence: 65%. Lucas Van Zijl to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Richard Church. Lucas Van Zijl won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Van Zijl played 114% better than Richard Church in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucas Van Zijl actually played at a level of 2,656 and Richard Church at a level of 1,239. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Van Zijl changes to +40% and Richard Church changes to -43%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Van Zijl becomes +15.5% and for Richard Church becomes -17%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Lucas Van Zijl is +7.8% and for Richard Church is -7.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Richard Church is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Van Zijl: 84%, Richard Church: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Van Zijl: 58%, Richard Church: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lucas Van Zijl: 1,982, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Richard Church: 1,699, level confidence: 56%. Notes
|