Menu | Explaining level changesJorge Pineda-Langford v Simon Inskip (Thu 16 Jan 2025)Match won by Simon Inskip. Result: 1-11,0-11,6-11.Starting level for Jorge Pineda-Langford: 666, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Simon Inskip: 951, level confidence: 60%. Simon Inskip to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Jorge Pineda-Langford. Simon Inskip won all of the games and 83% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Inskip played 371% better than Jorge Pineda-Langford in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Inskip actually played at a level of 1,728 and Jorge Pineda-Langford at a level of 367. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 82% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 64% and 65% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Inskip changes to +64% and Jorge Pineda-Langford changes to -47%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Inskip becomes +29.9% and for Jorge Pineda-Langford becomes -23%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Wyvern Boxes' so the adjustment for Simon Inskip is +15% and for Jorge Pineda-Langford is -10.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Inskip is limited to +10% and Jorge Pineda-Langford is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Inskip: 78%, Jorge Pineda-Langford: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Inskip: 43%, Jorge Pineda-Langford: 47%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jorge Pineda-Langford: 633, level confidence: 47%. Final level for Simon Inskip: 1,045, level confidence: 43%. Notes
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