Menu | Explaining level changesGordon Scott v David Moore (Sun 28 Apr 2024)Match won by David Moore. Result: 5-11,8-11,8-11.Starting level for Gordon Scott: 1,473, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for David Moore: 3,258, level confidence: 56%. David Moore to win as he is currently playing 121% better than Gordon Scott. David Moore won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Moore played 56% better than Gordon Scott in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Moore was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,164 and 3,258 without affecting his level. In this case, David Moore played at level 2,525 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Moore would normally have been playing at level 2,766 (based on typical behaviour), Gordon Scott played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Moore changes to 0% and Gordon Scott changes to +4.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Moore becomes 0% and for Gordon Scott becomes +3.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Fair Oak Boxes' so the adjustment for David Moore is 0% and for Gordon Scott is +1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Moore: 75%, Gordon Scott: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Moore: 63%, Gordon Scott: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Gordon Scott: 1,494, level confidence: 76%. Final level for David Moore: 3,253, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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