Menu | Explaining level changesMark Turner v Tony Dean (Fri 26 Apr 2024)Match won by Mark Turner. Result: 15-3,15-7,15-4.Starting level for Mark Turner: 1,031, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Tony Dean: 805, level confidence: 65%. Mark Turner to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Tony Dean. Mark Turner won all of the games and 76% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 221% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Turner played 221% better than Tony Dean in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Turner actually played at a level of 1,633 and Tony Dean at a level of 508. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 58% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 50% and 50% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Turner changes to +50% and Tony Dean changes to -38%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Turner becomes +23.8% and for Tony Dean becomes -19%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Ickleford Boxes' so the adjustment for Mark Turner is +12% and for Tony Dean is -8.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Turner is limited to +10% and Tony Dean is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Turner: 73%, Tony Dean: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Turner: 46%, Tony Dean: 51%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Turner: 1,132, level confidence: 46%. Final level for Tony Dean: 766, level confidence: 51%. Notes
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