Menu | Explaining level changesRob Alderson v Anne Thorn (Wed 24 Apr 2024)Match won by Rob Alderson. Result: 15-8,15-2,15-3.Starting level for Rob Alderson: 196, level confidence: 23%. Starting level for Anne Thorn: 142, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Rob Alderson to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Anne Thorn. Rob Alderson won all of the games and 78% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 246% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Alderson played 246% better than Anne Thorn in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Alderson actually played at a level of 310 and Anne Thorn at a level of 90. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 58% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 47% and 48% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Alderson changes to +47% and Anne Thorn changes to -10.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Alderson becomes +23.1% and for Anne Thorn becomes -6.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Rob Alderson is +12% and for Anne Thorn is -3.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rob Alderson is limited to +10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. As Rob Alderson has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Anne Thorn's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Alderson: 48%, Anne Thorn: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Alderson: 30%, Anne Thorn: 55%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob Alderson: 215, level confidence: 30%. Final level for Anne Thorn: 142, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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