Menu | Explaining level changesJanice Shepard v Mike Esson (Tue 16 Apr 2024)Match won by Janice Shepard. Result: 3-0.Starting level for Janice Shepard: 260, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Mike Esson: 398, level confidence: 53%. Mike Esson to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Janice Shepard. Janice Shepard won all of the games. There are no points scores. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Janice Shepard actually played at a level of 426 and Mike Esson at a level of 243. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 64% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 49% and 48% respectively. Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 25%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Janice Shepard changes to +22% and Mike Esson changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Janice Shepard becomes +12% and for Mike Esson becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Janice Shepard is +6% and for Mike Esson is -6.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mike Esson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Janice Shepard: 79%, Mike Esson: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Janice Shepard: 48%, Mike Esson: 44%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Janice Shepard: 275, level confidence: 48%. Final level for Mike Esson: 385, level confidence: 44%. Notes
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