Menu | Explaining level changesRoger Camp v Ben Swift (Wed 03 Apr 2024)Match won by Roger Camp. Result: 11-6,9-11,11-7,11-4.Starting level for Roger Camp: 3,273, level confidence: 87%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Swift: 1,522, level confidence: 57%. Roger Camp to win as he is currently playing 115% better than Ben Swift. Roger Camp won 75% of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roger Camp played 33% better than Ben Swift in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Roger Camp was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,224 and 3,273 without affecting his level. As Roger Camp has played below his allowed range at 2,124, his level reduction is 4.7% before damping. On the assumption that Roger Camp would normally have been playing at level 2,804 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Swift played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roger Camp changes to -1.6% and Ben Swift changes to +12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roger Camp becomes -1.1% and for Ben Swift becomes +6.1%. Given Roger Camp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Roger Camp is -0.4% and for Ben Swift is +3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roger Camp: 93%, Ben Swift: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roger Camp: 73%, Ben Swift: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Roger Camp: 3,254, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Ben Swift: 1,566, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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