Menu | Explaining level changesJack Cornell v Paul Norton (Fri 05 Apr 2024)Match won by Paul Norton. Result: 6-11,3-11.Starting level for Jack Cornell: 2,377, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Paul Norton: 2,344, level confidence: 52%. Jack Cornell to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Paul Norton. Paul Norton won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 144% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Norton played 144% better than Jack Cornell in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Norton actually played at a level of 3,690 and Jack Cornell at a level of 1,510. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 57% to match this result. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 40% and 40% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Norton changes to +7.7% and Jack Cornell changes to -40%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Norton becomes +3.9% and for Jack Cornell becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'UK Series North East Open 2024' so the adjustment is unchanged. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jack Cornell is limited to -12% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Norton: 72%, Jack Cornell: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Norton: 46%, Jack Cornell: 20%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Cornell: 2,113, level confidence: 20%. Final level for Paul Norton: 2,431, level confidence: 46%. Notes
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