Menu | Explaining level changesGraeme Manson v Stefan Rapacz (Fri 05 Apr 2024)Match won by Stefan Rapacz. Result: 2-11,11-13.Starting level for Graeme Manson: 6,335, level confidence: 48%. Starting level for Stefan Rapacz: 4,493, level confidence: 23%. Graeme Manson to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Stefan Rapacz. Stefan Rapacz won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 85% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stefan Rapacz played 85% better than Graeme Manson in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stefan Rapacz actually played at a level of 7,249 and Graeme Manson at a level of 3,927. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 61% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 50% and 50% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stefan Rapacz changes to +35% and Graeme Manson changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stefan Rapacz becomes +10.6% and for Graeme Manson becomes -4.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'UK Series North East Open 2024' so the adjustment is unchanged. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Stefan Rapacz is limited to +10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stefan Rapacz: 48%, Graeme Manson: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stefan Rapacz: 30%, Graeme Manson: 43%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Graeme Manson: 6,041, level confidence: 43%. Final level for Stefan Rapacz: 4,935, level confidence: 30%. Notes
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