Menu | Explaining level changesRichard Cobb v Graeme Manson (Fri 05 Apr 2024)Match won by Graeme Manson. Result: 11-13,4-11.Starting level for Richard Cobb: 1,195, level confidence: 49%. Starting level for Graeme Manson: 6,476, level confidence: 44%. Graeme Manson to win as he is currently playing 442% better than Richard Cobb. Graeme Manson won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 60% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Graeme Manson played 60% better than Richard Cobb in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Graeme Manson was taking it easy by anything up to 45%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,992 and 6,476 without affecting his level. As Graeme Manson has played below his allowed range at 1,951, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Graeme Manson would normally have been playing at level 3,591 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Cobb played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 37%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 14% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 10.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Graeme Manson changes to 0% and Richard Cobb changes to +9.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Graeme Manson becomes 0% and for Richard Cobb becomes +5.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'UK Series North East Open 2024' so the adjustment is unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Graeme Manson: 67%, Richard Cobb: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Graeme Manson: 36%, Richard Cobb: 38%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Cobb: 1,268, level confidence: 38%. Final level for Graeme Manson: 6,492, level confidence: 36%. Notes
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