Menu | Explaining level changesTommy Meadows v Tom Jackson (Fri 05 Apr 2024)Match won by Tommy Meadows. Result: 11-9,11-8.Starting level for Tommy Meadows: 1,521, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Tom Jackson: 3,907, level confidence: 54%. Tom Jackson to win as he is currently playing 157% better than Tommy Meadows. Tommy Meadows won all of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tommy Meadows played 38% better than Tom Jackson in this match. An upset! Tommy Meadows has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 1699. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tommy Meadows actually played at a level of 3,025 and Tom Jackson at a level of 2,194. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 78% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 46% and 46% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tommy Meadows changes to +30% and Tom Jackson changes to -33%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tommy Meadows becomes +12.8% and for Tom Jackson becomes -10.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'UK Series North East Open 2024' so the adjustment is unchanged. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tommy Meadows is limited to +10% and Tom Jackson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Tommy Meadows has already increased 15% since starting this event at level 1471. The amount a player can increase in a single event is limited to 25% so Tommy Meadows's increase for this match has been limited to 8.2%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Tommy Meadows is +21%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tommy Meadows: 76%, Tom Jackson: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tommy Meadows: 41%, Tom Jackson: 39%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tommy Meadows: 1,839, level confidence: 41%. Final level for Tom Jackson: 3,715, level confidence: 39%. Notes
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