Menu | Explaining level changesCallum Tomlinson v Tommy Meadows (Fri 05 Apr 2024)Match won by Callum Tomlinson. Result: 11-5,8-11,11-1.Starting level for Callum Tomlinson: 2,831, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Tommy Meadows: 1,513, level confidence: 43%. Callum Tomlinson to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Tommy Meadows. Callum Tomlinson won 67% of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Callum Tomlinson played 48% better than Tommy Meadows in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Callum Tomlinson was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,280 and 2,831 without affecting his level. As Callum Tomlinson has played below his allowed range at 2,261, his level reduction is 0.8% before damping. On the assumption that Callum Tomlinson would normally have been playing at level 2,541 (based on typical behaviour), Tommy Meadows played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 4.7% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 3.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Callum Tomlinson changes to -0.5% and Tommy Meadows changes to +0.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Callum Tomlinson becomes -0.3% and for Tommy Meadows becomes +0.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'UK Series North East Open 2024' so the adjustment is unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Callum Tomlinson: 32%, Tommy Meadows: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Callum Tomlinson: 28%, Tommy Meadows: 58%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Callum Tomlinson: 2,818, level confidence: 28%. Final level for Tommy Meadows: 1,521, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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