Menu | Explaining level changesTommy Meadows v Tim Millington (Fri 05 Apr 2024)Match won by Tim Millington. Result: 11-4,5-11,7-11.Starting level for Tommy Meadows: 1,471, level confidence: 40%. Starting level for Tim Millington: 3,696, level confidence: 10%. Tim Millington to win as he is currently playing 151% better than Tommy Meadows. Tim Millington won 67% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Millington played 17% better than Tommy Meadows in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tim Millington was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,437 and 3,696 without affecting his level. As Tim Millington has played below his allowed range at 2,044, his level reduction is 19% before damping. On the assumption that Tim Millington would normally have been playing at level 3,001 (based on typical behaviour), Tommy Meadows played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 32%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 19% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 8.5% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Millington changes to -8.5% and Tommy Meadows changes to +3.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Millington becomes -3.6% and for Tommy Meadows becomes +2.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'UK Series North East Open 2024' so the adjustment is unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Millington: 32%, Tommy Meadows: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Millington: 22%, Tommy Meadows: 43%. A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tommy Meadows: 1,513, level confidence: 43%. Final level for Tim Millington: 3,632, level confidence: 22%. Notes
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