Menu | Explaining level changesPaul Greenwood v Mike Andrews (Thu 04 Apr 2024)Match won by Paul Greenwood. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-9.Starting level for Paul Greenwood: 4,370, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Mike Andrews: 1,574, level confidence: 60%. Paul Greenwood to win as he is currently playing 178% better than Mike Andrews. Paul Greenwood won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Greenwood played 56% better than Mike Andrews in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Greenwood was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,356 and 4,370 without affecting his level. In this case, Paul Greenwood played at level 2,899 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Greenwood would normally have been playing at level 3,413 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Andrews played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 10.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Greenwood changes to 0% and Mike Andrews changes to +10.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Greenwood becomes 0% and for Mike Andrews becomes +5.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Stratford Upon Avon Leagues' so the adjustment for Paul Greenwood is 0% and for Mike Andrews is +2.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Greenwood: 77%, Mike Andrews: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Greenwood: 58%, Mike Andrews: 58%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Greenwood: 4,367, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Mike Andrews: 1,616, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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