Menu | Explaining level changesNeil Moore v Danny Quigley Snr (Wed 03 Apr 2024)Match won by Neil Moore. Result: 11-1,11-2,11-7.Starting level for Neil Moore: 882, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Danny Quigley Snr: 584, level confidence: 53%. Neil Moore to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Danny Quigley Snr. Neil Moore won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Moore played 230% better than Danny Quigley Snr in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Moore actually played at a level of 1,304 and Danny Quigley Snr at a level of 395. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 48% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 37% and 37% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Moore changes to +32% and Danny Quigley Snr changes to -37%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Moore becomes +16.4% and for Danny Quigley Snr becomes -19%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Fair Oak Boxes' so the adjustment for Neil Moore is +8.2% and for Danny Quigley Snr is -8.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Danny Quigley Snr is limited to -5.2% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. As Neil Moore has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Danny Quigley Snr's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Moore: 78%, Danny Quigley Snr: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Moore: 53%, Danny Quigley Snr: 49%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Neil Moore: 953, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Danny Quigley Snr: 583, level confidence: 49%. Notes
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