Menu | Explaining level changesMike Tolman v Jon Lidster (Fri 22 Mar 2024)Match won by Mike Tolman. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-8.Starting level for Mike Tolman: 14,138, level confidence: 46%. Starting level for Jon Lidster: 2,952, level confidence: 68%. Mike Tolman to win as he is currently playing 379% better than Jon Lidster. Mike Tolman won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Tolman played 74% better than Jon Lidster in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mike Tolman was taking it easy by anything up to 41%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,817 and 14,138 without affecting his level. In this case, Mike Tolman played at level 6,552 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mike Tolman would normally have been playing at level 8,374 (based on typical behaviour), Jon Lidster played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 28%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Tolman changes to 0% and Jon Lidster changes to +8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Tolman becomes 0% and for Jon Lidster becomes +3.7%. Given Jon Lidster's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Huddersfield Super League' so the adjustment for Mike Tolman is 0% and for Jon Lidster is +1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Tolman: 68%, Jon Lidster: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Tolman: 41%, Jon Lidster: 50%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Tolman: 14,117, level confidence: 41%. Final level for Jon Lidster: 2,994, level confidence: 50%. Notes
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