Menu | Explaining level changesPeter Hesslewood v Danny Quigley Snr (Fri 15 Mar 2024)Match won by Danny Quigley Snr. Result: 9-11,13-15,9-11.Starting level for Peter Hesslewood: 855, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Danny Quigley Snr: 538, level confidence: 69%. Peter Hesslewood to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Danny Quigley Snr. Danny Quigley Snr won all of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Danny Quigley Snr played 31% better than Peter Hesslewood in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Danny Quigley Snr actually played at a level of 777 and Peter Hesslewood at a level of 592. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 33% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Danny Quigley Snr changes to +34% and Peter Hesslewood changes to -26%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Danny Quigley Snr becomes +17.4% and for Peter Hesslewood becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Fair Oak Boxes' so the adjustment for Danny Quigley Snr is +8.7% and for Peter Hesslewood is -6.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Peter Hesslewood is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Danny Quigley Snr: 83%, Peter Hesslewood: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Danny Quigley Snr: 57%, Peter Hesslewood: 63%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Peter Hesslewood: 813, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Danny Quigley Snr: 584, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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