Menu | Explaining level changesJames Carse v Colin Codrai (Fri 15 Mar 2024)Match won by James Carse. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-5.Starting level for James Carse: 501, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Colin Codrai: 220, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. James Carse to win as he is currently playing 128% better than Colin Codrai. James Carse won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Carse played 83% better than Colin Codrai in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Carse was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 325 and 501 without affecting his level. In this case, James Carse played at level 412 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Carse would normally have been playing at level 421 (based on typical behaviour), Colin Codrai played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Carse changes to 0% and Colin Codrai changes to +1.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Carse becomes 0% and for Colin Codrai becomes +1.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Fair Oak Boxes' so the adjustment for James Carse is 0% and for Colin Codrai is +0.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Carse: 81%, Colin Codrai: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Carse: 72%, Colin Codrai: 78%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Carse: 500, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Colin Codrai: 221, level confidence: 78%. Notes
|