Menu | Explaining level changesAdam Smith v Chris Canham (Tue 12 Mar 2024)Match won by Adam Smith. Result: 15-5,15-12,10-15,15-5.Starting level for Adam Smith: 804, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Chris Canham: 950, level confidence: 62%. Chris Canham to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Adam Smith. Adam Smith won 75% of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 49% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Smith played 33% better than Chris Canham in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Smith actually played at a level of 1,007 and Chris Canham at a level of 758. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Smith changes to +23% and Chris Canham changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Smith becomes +12.6% and for Chris Canham becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Adam Smith is +6.3% and for Chris Canham is -5.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chris Canham is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. As Adam Smith has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Chris Canham's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Smith: 79%, Chris Canham: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Smith: 63%, Chris Canham: 63%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam Smith: 853, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Chris Canham: 949, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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