Menu | Explaining level changesBernie Wright v Max Wilkinson (Mon 11 Mar 2024)Match won by Max Wilkinson. Result: 11-15,10-15,11-15.Starting level for Bernie Wright: 178, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Max Wilkinson: 540, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Max Wilkinson to win as he is currently playing 203% better than Bernie Wright. Max Wilkinson won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Wilkinson played 45% better than Bernie Wright in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Max Wilkinson was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 265 and 540 without affecting his level. As Max Wilkinson has played below his allowed range at 262, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Max Wilkinson would normally have been playing at level 406 (based on typical behaviour), Bernie Wright played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Wilkinson changes to 0% and Bernie Wright changes to +14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Wilkinson becomes -0.1% and for Bernie Wright becomes +8.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Max Wilkinson is 0% and for Bernie Wright is +4.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Wilkinson: 84%, Bernie Wright: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Wilkinson: 58%, Bernie Wright: 52%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Bernie Wright: 185, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Max Wilkinson: 539, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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