Menu | Explaining level changesGill Stewart v Adrian Cooper (Thu 07 Mar 2024)Match won by Adrian Cooper. Result: 8-15,9-15,6-15.Starting level for Gill Stewart: 344, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Adrian Cooper: 925, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Adrian Cooper to win as he is currently playing 169% better than Gill Stewart. Adrian Cooper won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Cooper played 96% better than Gill Stewart in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adrian Cooper was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 515 and 925 without affecting his level. In this case, Adrian Cooper played at level 702 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Adrian Cooper would normally have been playing at level 732 (based on typical behaviour), Gill Stewart played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Cooper changes to 0% and Gill Stewart changes to +2.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Cooper becomes 0% and for Gill Stewart becomes +2.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Adrian Cooper is 0% and for Gill Stewart is +1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Cooper: 86%, Gill Stewart: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Cooper: 73%, Gill Stewart: 74%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Gill Stewart: 348, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Adrian Cooper: 924, level confidence: 73%. Notes
|