Menu | Explaining level changesMax Wilkinson v Roger Holman (Tue 05 Mar 2024)Match won by Max Wilkinson. Result: 15-8,15-10,15-10.Starting level for Max Wilkinson: 541, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Roger Holman: 276, level confidence: 56%. Max Wilkinson to win as he is currently playing 96% better than Roger Holman. Max Wilkinson won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Wilkinson played 61% better than Roger Holman in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Max Wilkinson was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 397 and 541 without affecting his level. In this case, Max Wilkinson played at level 460 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Max Wilkinson would normally have been playing at level 478 (based on typical behaviour), Roger Holman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Wilkinson changes to 0% and Roger Holman changes to +2.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Wilkinson becomes 0% and for Roger Holman becomes +2.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Max Wilkinson is 0% and for Roger Holman is +1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Wilkinson: 81%, Roger Holman: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Wilkinson: 73%, Roger Holman: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Max Wilkinson: 540, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Roger Holman: 279, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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