Menu | Explaining level changesDuncan Tingle v Mark Turner (Tue 20 Feb 2024)Match won by Duncan Tingle. Result: 15-6,15-7,15-2.Starting level for Duncan Tingle: 1,434, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Mark Turner: 1,030, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Duncan Tingle to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Mark Turner. Duncan Tingle won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Duncan Tingle played 200% better than Mark Turner in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Duncan Tingle actually played at a level of 2,105 and Mark Turner at a level of 702. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Duncan Tingle changes to +38% and Mark Turner changes to -30%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Duncan Tingle becomes +16.4% and for Mark Turner becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Ickleford Boxes' so the adjustment for Duncan Tingle is +8.2% and for Mark Turner is -7.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Turner is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Duncan Tingle: 80%, Mark Turner: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Duncan Tingle: 54%, Mark Turner: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Duncan Tingle: 1,549, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Mark Turner: 979, level confidence: 60%. Notes
|