Menu | Explaining level changesJames Dean v Tristan Vasey (Fri 16 Feb 2024)Match won by Tristan Vasey. Result: 11-13,6-11.Starting level for James Dean: 5,275, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Tristan Vasey: 3,293, level confidence: 65%. James Dean to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Tristan Vasey. Tristan Vasey won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tristan Vasey played 46% better than James Dean in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tristan Vasey actually played at a level of 5,031 and James Dean at a level of 3,452. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 53% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 40% and 40% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tristan Vasey changes to +29% and James Dean changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tristan Vasey becomes +9.7% and for James Dean becomes -8.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'East England Feb '24 Open' so the adjustment is unchanged. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that James Dean is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tristan Vasey: 80%, James Dean: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tristan Vasey: 53%, James Dean: 53%. A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Dean: 5,078, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Tristan Vasey: 3,621, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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