Menu | Explaining level changesTommy Meadows v James Dean (Fri 16 Feb 2024)Match won by James Dean. Result: 7-11,7-11.Starting level for Tommy Meadows: 1,401, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for James Dean: 5,264, level confidence: 47%. James Dean to win as he is currently playing 276% better than Tommy Meadows. James Dean won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Dean played 56% better than Tommy Meadows in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Dean was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,423 and 5,264 without affecting his level. As James Dean has played below his allowed range at 2,305, his level reduction is 5.2% before damping. On the assumption that James Dean would normally have been playing at level 3,572 (based on typical behaviour), Tommy Meadows played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 28%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 13% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 9.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Dean changes to -0.5% and Tommy Meadows changes to +8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Dean becomes -0.3% and for Tommy Meadows becomes +4.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'East England Feb '24 Open' so the adjustment is unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Dean: 69%, Tommy Meadows: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Dean: 44%, Tommy Meadows: 49%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tommy Meadows: 1,471, level confidence: 49%. Final level for James Dean: 5,262, level confidence: 44%. Notes
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