Menu | Explaining level changesTommy Meadows v Kimberly Hay (Fri 16 Feb 2024)Match won by Kimberly Hay. Result: 6-11,7-11.Starting level for Tommy Meadows: 1,367, level confidence: 49%. Starting level for Kimberly Hay: 3,342, level confidence: 30%. Kimberly Hay to win as he is currently playing 144% better than Tommy Meadows. Kimberly Hay won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kimberly Hay played 69% better than Tommy Meadows in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Kimberly Hay was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,248 and 3,342 without affecting his level. In this case, Kimberly Hay played at level 2,518 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Kimberly Hay would normally have been playing at level 2,741 (based on typical behaviour), Tommy Meadows played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.6% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kimberly Hay changes to 0% and Tommy Meadows changes to +2.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kimberly Hay becomes 0% and for Tommy Meadows becomes +2.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'East England Feb '24 Open' so the adjustment is unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kimberly Hay: 55%, Tommy Meadows: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kimberly Hay: 45%, Tommy Meadows: 58%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tommy Meadows: 1,401, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Kimberly Hay: 3,350, level confidence: 45%. Notes
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