Menu | Explaining level changesStuart Gilfillan v Jeremy Leach (Sun 11 Feb 2024)Match won by Stuart Gilfillan. Result: 3-0.Starting level for Stuart Gilfillan: 1,608, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Jeremy Leach: 2,352, level confidence: 53%. Jeremy Leach to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Stuart Gilfillan. Stuart Gilfillan won all of the games. There are no points scores. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Gilfillan actually played at a level of 2,573 and Jeremy Leach at a level of 1,470. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 60% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 47% and 47% respectively. Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 24%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Gilfillan changes to +25% and Jeremy Leach changes to -3.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Gilfillan becomes +11% and for Jeremy Leach becomes -2.5%. Given Jeremy Leach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.8% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Stuart Gilfillan is +5.5% and for Jeremy Leach is -1.2%. As Stuart Gilfillan has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Jeremy Leach's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Gilfillan: 32%, Jeremy Leach: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Gilfillan: 20%, Jeremy Leach: 45%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Stuart Gilfillan: 1,694, level confidence: 20%. Final level for Jeremy Leach: 2,348, level confidence: 45%. Notes
|