Menu | Explaining level changesMark Beech v Chris Herbert (Sun 11 Feb 2024)Match won by Mark Beech. Result: 11-4,11-9,11-4.Starting level for Mark Beech: 951, level confidence: 55%. Starting level for Chris Herbert: 386, level confidence: 60%. Mark Beech to win as he is currently playing 146% better than Chris Herbert. Mark Beech won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Beech played 94% better than Chris Herbert in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Beech was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 575 and 951 without affecting his level. In this case, Mark Beech played at level 763 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mark Beech would normally have been playing at level 778 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Herbert played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Beech changes to 0% and Chris Herbert changes to +1.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Beech becomes 0% and for Chris Herbert becomes +1.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Mark Beech is 0% and for Chris Herbert is +0.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Beech: 74%, Chris Herbert: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Beech: 66%, Chris Herbert: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Beech: 950, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Chris Herbert: 388, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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