Menu | Explaining level changesCaroline v Richard Smith (Fri 09 Feb 2024)Match won by Richard Smith. Result: 3-11,8-11,3-11.Starting level for Caroline: 134, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Richard Smith: 570, level confidence: 48%. Richard Smith to win as he is currently playing 325% better than Caroline. Richard Smith won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Smith played 136% better than Caroline in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richard Smith was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 183 and 570 without affecting his level. In this case, Richard Smith played at level 338 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Richard Smith would normally have been playing at level 362 (based on typical behaviour), Caroline played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Smith changes to 0% and Caroline changes to +2.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Smith becomes 0% and for Caroline becomes +2.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Lings Forum Boxes' so the adjustment for Richard Smith is 0% and for Caroline is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Smith: 69%, Caroline: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Smith: 52%, Caroline: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Caroline: 135, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Richard Smith: 569, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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