Menu | Explaining level changesDan Taylor v Roger Holman (Fri 02 Feb 2024)Match won by Dan Taylor. Result: 15-6,15-7,15-3.Starting level for Dan Taylor: 500, level confidence: 84%. Set manually. Starting level for Roger Holman: 306, level confidence: 61%. Dan Taylor to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Roger Holman. Dan Taylor won all of the games and 74% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 181% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Taylor played 181% better than Roger Holman in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan Taylor actually played at a level of 656 and Roger Holman at a level of 233. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Taylor changes to +17% and Roger Holman changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Taylor becomes +9.6% and for Roger Holman becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Limpsfield Leagues' so the adjustment for Dan Taylor is +4.8% and for Roger Holman is -6.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Roger Holman is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Taylor: 92%, Roger Holman: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Taylor: 70%, Roger Holman: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dan Taylor: 523, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Roger Holman: 291, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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