Menu | Explaining level changesJesse Mills v Neil Bennett (Wed 31 Jan 2024)Match won by Neil Bennett. Result: 9-11,5-11.Starting level for Jesse Mills: 3,861, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Neil Bennett: 8,384, level confidence: 61%. Neil Bennett to win as he is currently playing 117% better than Jesse Mills. Neil Bennett won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Bennett played 56% better than Jesse Mills in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Neil Bennett was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,115 and 8,384 without affecting his level. As Neil Bennett has played below his allowed range at 6,078, his level reduction is 0.6% before damping. On the assumption that Neil Bennett would normally have been playing at level 7,160 (based on typical behaviour), Jesse Mills played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 5.9% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.3% and 4.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Bennett changes to -0.3% and Jesse Mills changes to +4.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Bennett becomes -0.2% and for Jesse Mills becomes +2.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Scottish Open 2024' so the adjustment is unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Bennett: 78%, Jesse Mills: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Bennett: 66%, Jesse Mills: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jesse Mills: 3,945, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Neil Bennett: 8,358, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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