Menu | Explaining level changesJesse Mills v Mark Cormack (Wed 31 Jan 2024)Match won by Jesse Mills. Result: 11-6,11-6.Starting level for Jesse Mills: 3,532, level confidence: 49%. Starting level for Mark Cormack: 806, level confidence: 22%. Jesse Mills to win as he is currently playing 338% better than Mark Cormack. Jesse Mills won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jesse Mills played 83% better than Mark Cormack in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jesse Mills was taking it easy by anything up to 38%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,374 and 3,532 without affecting his level. In this case, Jesse Mills played at level 1,804 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jesse Mills would normally have been playing at level 2,203 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Cormack played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 10% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jesse Mills changes to 0% and Mark Cormack changes to +7.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jesse Mills becomes 0% and for Mark Cormack becomes +5.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Scottish Open 2024' so the adjustment is unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jesse Mills: 70%, Mark Cormack: 47%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jesse Mills: 45%, Mark Cormack: 31%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jesse Mills: 3,527, level confidence: 45%. Final level for Mark Cormack: 847, level confidence: 31%. Notes
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