Menu | Explaining level changesDavid Moore v Dilip Chakrabarti (Mon 29 Jan 2024)Match won by David Moore. Result: 11-9,11-9,11-9.Starting level for David Moore: 3,231, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Dilip Chakrabarti: 1,462, level confidence: 56%. David Moore to win as he is currently playing 121% better than Dilip Chakrabarti. David Moore won all of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Moore played 33% better than Dilip Chakrabarti in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Moore was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,147 and 3,231 without affecting his level. As David Moore has played below his allowed range at 2,044, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that David Moore would normally have been playing at level 2,744 (based on typical behaviour), Dilip Chakrabarti played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 12% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Moore changes to -2.2% and Dilip Chakrabarti changes to +12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Moore becomes -1.5% and for Dilip Chakrabarti becomes +6.4%. Given David Moore's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Fair Oak Boxes' so the adjustment for David Moore is -0.6% and for Dilip Chakrabarti is +3.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Moore: 80%, Dilip Chakrabarti: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Moore: 62%, Dilip Chakrabarti: 58%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Moore: 3,207, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Dilip Chakrabarti: 1,507, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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