Menu | Explaining level changesNoel Pascoe v Mark Starling (Thu 25 Jan 2024)Match won by Mark Starling. Result: 8-15,9-15,9-15.Starting level for Noel Pascoe: 264, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Mark Starling: 779, level confidence: 67%. Mark Starling to win as he is currently playing 195% better than Noel Pascoe. Mark Starling won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Starling played 73% better than Noel Pascoe in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Starling was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 394 and 779 without affecting his level. In this case, Mark Starling played at level 521 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mark Starling would normally have been playing at level 593 (based on typical behaviour), Noel Pascoe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Starling changes to 0% and Noel Pascoe changes to +7.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Starling becomes 0% and for Noel Pascoe becomes +5.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Mark Starling is 0% and for Noel Pascoe is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Starling: 82%, Noel Pascoe: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Starling: 63%, Noel Pascoe: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Noel Pascoe: 271, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Mark Starling: 778, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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