Menu | Explaining level changesRichard Smith v David Howard (Thu 25 Jan 2024)Match won by David Howard. Result: 6-11,2-11,9-11.Starting level for Richard Smith: 626, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for David Howard: 495, level confidence: 57%. Richard Smith to win as he is currently playing 26% better than David Howard. David Howard won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Howard played 94% better than Richard Smith in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Howard actually played at a level of 776 and Richard Smith at a level of 400. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 57% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 49% and 49% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Howard changes to +49% and Richard Smith changes to -31%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Howard becomes +23.9% and for Richard Smith becomes -16%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Lings Forum Boxes' so the adjustment for David Howard is +12% and for Richard Smith is -7.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Howard is limited to +10% and Richard Smith is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Howard: 75%, Richard Smith: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Howard: 48%, Richard Smith: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Smith: 595, level confidence: 56%. Final level for David Howard: 544, level confidence: 48%. Notes
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