Menu | Explaining level changesJames Ramsden v Chris Matthews (Wed 24 Jan 2024)Match won by James Ramsden. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-3.Starting level for James Ramsden: 5,600, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Chris Matthews: 2,437, level confidence: 58%. James Ramsden to win as he is currently playing 130% better than Chris Matthews. James Ramsden won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Ramsden played 175% better than Chris Matthews in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Ramsden actually played at a level of 6,126 and Chris Matthews at a level of 2,228. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.4% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 6.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Ramsden changes to +4.2% and Chris Matthews changes to -1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Ramsden becomes +2% and for Chris Matthews becomes -0.7%. Given James Ramsden's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 59% has been applied to his level change. Given Chris Matthews's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Huddersfield Super League' so the adjustment for James Ramsden is +0.6% and for Chris Matthews is -0.3%. As James Ramsden has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Chris Matthews's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Ramsden: 32%, Chris Matthews: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Ramsden: 29%, Chris Matthews: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Ramsden: 5,628, level confidence: 29%. Final level for Chris Matthews: 2,434, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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