Menu | Explaining level changesMartin Sawyer v David Howard (Tue 16 Jan 2024)Match won by Martin Sawyer. Result: 11-4,11-2,11-4.Starting level for Martin Sawyer: 878, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Starting level for David Howard: 513, level confidence: 67%. Martin Sawyer to win as he is currently playing 71% better than David Howard. Martin Sawyer won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin Sawyer played 230% better than David Howard in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin Sawyer actually played at a level of 1,219 and David Howard at a level of 369. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 29% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin Sawyer changes to +22% and David Howard changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin Sawyer becomes +12.1% and for David Howard becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Lings Forum Boxes' so the adjustment for Martin Sawyer is +6.1% and for David Howard is -7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Howard is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin Sawyer: 91%, David Howard: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin Sawyer: 66%, David Howard: 59%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Martin Sawyer: 930, level confidence: 66%. Final level for David Howard: 495, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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