Menu | Explaining level changesMike Foster v Danny Quigley Snr (Tue 09 Jan 2024)Match won by Danny Quigley Snr. Result: 5-11,5-11,7-11.Starting level for Mike Foster: 246, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Danny Quigley Snr: 580, level confidence: 38%. Danny Quigley Snr to win as he is currently playing 136% better than Mike Foster. Danny Quigley Snr won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Danny Quigley Snr played 94% better than Mike Foster in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Danny Quigley Snr was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 365 and 580 without affecting his level. In this case, Danny Quigley Snr played at level 480 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Danny Quigley Snr would normally have been playing at level 482 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Foster played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Danny Quigley Snr changes to 0% and Mike Foster changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Danny Quigley Snr becomes 0% and for Mike Foster becomes 0%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Fair Oak Boxes' so the adjustment for Danny Quigley Snr is 0% and for Mike Foster is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Danny Quigley Snr: 61%, Mike Foster: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Danny Quigley Snr: 56%, Mike Foster: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Foster: 246, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Danny Quigley Snr: 579, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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