Menu | Explaining level changesShaun Aran v Simon Yates (Thu 04 Jan 2024)Match won by Shaun Aran. Result: 11-4,11-1,11-5.Starting level for Shaun Aran: 1,820, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Simon Yates: 992, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Shaun Aran to win as he is currently playing 83% better than Simon Yates. Shaun Aran won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shaun Aran played 230% better than Simon Yates in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shaun Aran actually played at a level of 2,441 and Simon Yates at a level of 740. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shaun Aran changes to +22% and Simon Yates changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shaun Aran becomes +9.6% and for Simon Yates becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Lings Forum Boxes' so the adjustment for Shaun Aran is +4.8% and for Simon Yates is -6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Yates is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shaun Aran: 91%, Simon Yates: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shaun Aran: 68%, Simon Yates: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Shaun Aran: 1,905, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Simon Yates: 943, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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