Menu | Explaining level changesSergio Della Cerra v Pasquale Raimondo (Wed 03 Jan 2024)Match won by Sergio Della Cerra. Result: 12-10,11-3,11-2.Starting level for Sergio Della Cerra: 106, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Pasquale Raimondo: 107, level confidence: 29%. Pasquale Raimondo to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Sergio Della Cerra. Sergio Della Cerra won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 127% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sergio Della Cerra played 127% better than Pasquale Raimondo in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sergio Della Cerra actually played at a level of 160 and Pasquale Raimondo at a level of 71. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sergio Della Cerra changes to +23% and Pasquale Raimondo changes to -51%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sergio Della Cerra becomes +12.4% and for Pasquale Raimondo becomes -25%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Lings Forum Boxes' so the adjustment for Sergio Della Cerra is +6.2% and for Pasquale Raimondo is -11%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Pasquale Raimondo is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sergio Della Cerra: 80%, Pasquale Raimondo: 53%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sergio Della Cerra: 53%, Pasquale Raimondo: 35%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sergio Della Cerra: 112, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Pasquale Raimondo: 102, level confidence: 35%. Notes
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