Menu | Explaining level changesStephen Gerrard v Pasquale Raimondo (Wed 03 Jan 2024)Match won by Stephen Gerrard. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-4.Starting level for Stephen Gerrard: 81, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Pasquale Raimondo: 113, level confidence: 29%. Pasquale Raimondo to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Stephen Gerrard. Stephen Gerrard won all of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Gerrard played 154% better than Pasquale Raimondo in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Gerrard actually played at a level of 152 and Pasquale Raimondo at a level of 60. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 88% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 71% and 70% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Gerrard changes to +32% and Pasquale Raimondo changes to -70%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Gerrard becomes +16.8% and for Pasquale Raimondo becomes -32%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Lings Forum Boxes' so the adjustment for Stephen Gerrard is +8.4% and for Pasquale Raimondo is -14%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Pasquale Raimondo is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Gerrard: 80%, Pasquale Raimondo: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Gerrard: 42%, Pasquale Raimondo: 29%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Stephen Gerrard: 88, level confidence: 42%. Final level for Pasquale Raimondo: 107, level confidence: 29%. Notes
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