Menu | Explaining level changesChris Matthews v David Woodhead (Thu 21 Dec 2023)Match won by David Woodhead. Result: 4-11,6-8,11-13.Starting level for Chris Matthews: 2,441, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for David Woodhead: 2,588, level confidence: 49%. David Woodhead to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Chris Matthews. David Woodhead won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Woodhead played 53% better than Chris Matthews in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Woodhead actually played at a level of 3,111 and Chris Matthews at a level of 2,030. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Woodhead changes to +20% and Chris Matthews changes to -14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Woodhead becomes +7.6% and for Chris Matthews becomes -6%. Given David Woodhead's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Given Chris Matthews's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Huddersfield Super League' so the adjustment for David Woodhead is +3.4% and for Chris Matthews is -2.7%. As David Woodhead has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Chris Matthews's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Woodhead: 70%, Chris Matthews: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Woodhead: 58%, Chris Matthews: 68%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Chris Matthews: 2,437, level confidence: 68%. Final level for David Woodhead: 2,673, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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