Menu | Explaining level changesTerry Webster v Josh Williamson (Thu 21 Dec 2023)Match won by Josh Williamson. Result: 7-15,5-15,4-15.Starting level for Terry Webster: 1,511, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Josh Williamson: 2,403, level confidence: 28%. Josh Williamson to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Terry Webster. Josh Williamson won all of the games and 74% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 181% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Josh Williamson played 181% better than Terry Webster in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Josh Williamson actually played at a level of 3,196 and Terry Webster at a level of 1,136. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Josh Williamson changes to +25% and Terry Webster changes to -8.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Josh Williamson becomes +9.5% and for Terry Webster becomes -4.8%. Given Josh Williamson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Josh Williamson is +4.4% and for Terry Webster is -2.3%. As Josh Williamson has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Terry Webster's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Josh Williamson: 53%, Terry Webster: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Josh Williamson: 40%, Terry Webster: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Terry Webster: 1,509, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Josh Williamson: 2,505, level confidence: 40%. Notes
|