Menu | Explaining level changesLucas Van Zijl v Mark Starling (Wed 20 Dec 2023)Match won by Lucas Van Zijl. Result: 3-1.Starting level for Lucas Van Zijl: 1,487, level confidence: 92%. Set manually. Starting level for Mark Starling: 741, level confidence: 68%. Lucas Van Zijl to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Mark Starling. Lucas Van Zijl won 75% of the games. There are no points scores. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lucas Van Zijl was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,065 and 1,487 without affecting his level. As Lucas Van Zijl has played below his allowed range at 993, his level reduction is 7.2% before damping. On the assumption that Lucas Van Zijl would normally have been playing at level 1,301 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Starling played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 13% respectively. Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 10.1%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Van Zijl changes to -2.6% and Mark Starling changes to +10.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Van Zijl becomes -2.2% and for Mark Starling becomes +6.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Exeter Golf & Country Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Lucas Van Zijl is -1.1% and for Mark Starling is +3.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Van Zijl: 96%, Mark Starling: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Van Zijl: 76%, Mark Starling: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lucas Van Zijl: 1,469, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Mark Starling: 764, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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