Menu | Explaining level changesDavid Howard v Roger Porter (Wed 20 Dec 2023)Match won by David Howard. Result: 11-9,11-7,5-11,12-10.Starting level for David Howard: 549, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Roger Porter: 270, level confidence: 32%. David Howard to win as he is currently playing 103% better than Roger Porter. David Howard won 75% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Howard played 19% better than Roger Porter in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Howard was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 389 and 549 without affecting his level. As David Howard has played below his allowed range at 353, his level reduction is 10.3% before damping. On the assumption that David Howard would normally have been playing at level 479 (based on typical behaviour), Roger Porter played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Howard changes to -2.4% and Roger Porter changes to +15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Howard becomes -2.4% and for Roger Porter becomes +8.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Lings Forum Boxes' so the adjustment for David Howard is -1.2% and for Roger Porter is +4.5%. As Roger Porter has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so David Howard's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Howard: 89%, Roger Porter: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Howard: 68%, Roger Porter: 43%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Howard: 548, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Roger Porter: 282, level confidence: 43%. Notes
|