Menu | Explaining level changesMike Coombes v Keith Campbell (Mon 18 Dec 2023)Match won by Mike Coombes. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-5.Starting level for Mike Coombes: 2,950, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Keith Campbell: 3,365, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Keith Campbell to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Mike Coombes. Mike Coombes won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Coombes played 200% better than Keith Campbell in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Coombes actually played at a level of 5,457 and Keith Campbell at a level of 1,819. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 85% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Coombes changes to +78% and Keith Campbell changes to -77%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Coombes becomes +22.9% and for Keith Campbell becomes -22%. Given Mike Coombes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Given Keith Campbell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Huddersfield Super League' so the adjustment for Mike Coombes is +9.7% and for Keith Campbell is -7.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Keith Campbell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Coombes: 88%, Keith Campbell: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Coombes: 47%, Keith Campbell: 47%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mike Coombes: 3,233, level confidence: 47%. Final level for Keith Campbell: 3,200, level confidence: 47%. Notes
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