Menu | Explaining level changesMark Smith v Roger Porter (Thu 14 Dec 2023)Match won by Mark Smith. Result: 11-9,18-16,11-8.Starting level for Mark Smith: 705, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Roger Porter: 259, level confidence: 22%. Mark Smith to win as he is currently playing 172% better than Roger Porter. Mark Smith won all of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Smith played 32% better than Roger Porter in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Smith was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 388 and 705 without affecting his level. As Mark Smith has played below his allowed range at 365, his level reduction is 6.4% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Smith would normally have been playing at level 555 (based on typical behaviour), Roger Porter played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Smith changes to -0.3% and Roger Porter changes to +16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Smith becomes -0.3% and for Roger Porter becomes +9.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Lings Forum Boxes' so the adjustment for Mark Smith is 0% and for Roger Porter is +4.6%. As Roger Porter has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Mark Smith's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Smith: 87%, Roger Porter: 47%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Smith: 61%, Roger Porter: 32%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Smith: 704, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Roger Porter: 270, level confidence: 32%. Notes
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