Menu | Explaining level changesMatthew Brunning v Ruth Drysdale (Mon 11 Dec 2023)Match won by Ruth Drysdale. Result: 5-11,7-11,11-9,9-11.Starting level for Matthew Brunning: 277, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Ruth Drysdale: 587, level confidence: 18%. Ruth Drysdale to win as she is currently playing 112% better than Matthew Brunning. Ruth Drysdale won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 31% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ruth Drysdale played 27% better than Matthew Brunning in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ruth Drysdale was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 403 and 587 without affecting her level. As Ruth Drysdale has played below her allowed range at 377, her level reduction is 7.1% before damping. On the assumption that Ruth Drysdale would normally have been playing at level 505 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Brunning played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale changes to -3.9% and Matthew Brunning changes to +4.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale becomes -3.5% and for Matthew Brunning becomes +3.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Boxes' so the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale is -1.7% and for Matthew Brunning is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ruth Drysdale: 42%, Matthew Brunning: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ruth Drysdale: 33%, Matthew Brunning: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Matthew Brunning: 281, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Ruth Drysdale: 576, level confidence: 33%. Notes
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