Menu | Explaining level changesNeil Piper v Adrian James (Thu 23 Nov 2023)Match won by Neil Piper. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-8.Starting level for Neil Piper: 2,069, level confidence: 47%. Starting level for Adrian James: 934, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Neil Piper to win as he is currently playing 122% better than Adrian James. Neil Piper won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Piper played 56% better than Adrian James in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Neil Piper was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,372 and 2,069 without affecting his level. In this case, Neil Piper played at level 1,602 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Neil Piper would normally have been playing at level 1,756 (based on typical behaviour), Adrian James played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Piper changes to 0% and Adrian James changes to +4.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Piper becomes 0% and for Adrian James becomes +3.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Fair Oak Boxes' so the adjustment for Neil Piper is 0% and for Adrian James is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Piper: 68%, Adrian James: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Piper: 57%, Adrian James: 72%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Neil Piper: 2,066, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Adrian James: 949, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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