Menu | Explaining level changesTony Dean v Martyn Beazley (Thu 16 Nov 2023)Match won by Tony Dean. Result: 15-3,15-6,15-2.Starting level for Tony Dean: 734, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Martyn Beazley: 417, level confidence: 60%. Tony Dean to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Martyn Beazley. Tony Dean won all of the games and 80% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 309% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tony Dean played 309% better than Martyn Beazley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tony Dean actually played at a level of 1,119 and Martyn Beazley at a level of 274. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 37% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tony Dean changes to +31% and Martyn Beazley changes to -37%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tony Dean becomes +16% and for Martyn Beazley becomes -19%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Ickleford Boxes' so the adjustment for Tony Dean is +8% and for Martyn Beazley is -8.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Martyn Beazley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tony Dean: 83%, Martyn Beazley: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tony Dean: 54%, Martyn Beazley: 51%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tony Dean: 792, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Martyn Beazley: 397, level confidence: 51%. Notes
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